Rain on Saturday. What will we do? Postponed until 5/9

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Ernie Camacho	Rain on Saturday. What will we do? Postponed until 5/9	Lead	[-]
(04/29/09 11:27:18) Safety Director Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Tags : None I've been monitoring the weather forecast all week. Today it went from chance of showers on Saturday being somewhat low, to it being more of a certainty. Right now the forecast calls for showers on Friday night (80 percent chance) and a 40 percent chance of showers on Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies. So, what do we do about our big fly-fest and BBQ on Saturday? We've had it two ways in the past: 1. Light showers and overcast. Some people flew until it got too wet and visibilty too low. 2. Complete shut down of flying. We had the BBQ in the rain, huddling under Jane's sheds. We could follow the same plan - have the BBQ regardless of the weather, or we could postpone the fly-in until the next weekend. The weekend of 5/9-10 is open (only the Marina Steeple Chase on the calendar). I'll be talking to people today and we should have a decision posted here by tomorrow morning. Please stay tuned. Feel free to contribute your thoughts here. Ernie Last Edited By: Ernie Camacho 05/01/09 06:58:07. Edited 1 time.
John Blacet	Rats!	#1	[-]
(04/29/09 12:15:29) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	We have been very lucky with the weather for the history of this event. It's all much nicer if the weather is good. Since I have to drive 400 miles, I'm less inclined to hop in the car for a drizzle fest than you locals. You never know what the day will bring but it has been looking worse as the week goes on. Whatever you guys decide!
Greg Sugg	Should we cancel the fly-in?	#2	[-]
(04/29/09 15:06:04) Gone Rigid Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Here's what the NWS discussion says: LATEST MODELS BRING THE UPPER LOW TO NEAR 40N/130W BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE REST OF THE DISTRICT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE RESPECTABLE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER POSSIBLE AS IT NEARS THE COAST. CORRESPONDING QPF VALUES FOR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING GIVE 1-2 INCHES OF PRECIP TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH ELSEWHERE. As I read it, it may be rainy, or because we will be at the extreme north bay area, the rain may already be past us on Saturday. We could get great post frontal conditions. Last Edited By: Greg Sugg 04/29/09 15:10:01. Edited 2 times.
Dave Clement		#3	[-]
(04/29/09 16:21:21) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	My vote would be to postpone until the 9th and 10th. I'm out of town this weekend. So Ernie please put me on the list if we move it to May 9,10. Thanks Dave Clement
SWvisitor	St. Helena Flyin	#4	[-]
(04/29/09 18:51:41) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	I vote to postpone. 1.5 to 2 inches of rain sounds pretty serious. The 9th works for me. Scot
RG		#5	[-]
(04/29/09 19:08:10) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	That's unfortunate. I'd planned on making rent at the Marina Steeplechase next weekend. Ryan
Fred Clement	lets do it Saturday if the forcast looks better on Friday	#6	[-]
(04/29/09 20:40:05) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	lets do it Saturday if the forcast looks better on Friday, I have to work May 3rd, May 9th and May 10th Fred
SWvisitor	Sorry Ryan	#7	[-]
(04/29/09 20:46:53) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Sorry Ryan, but I have so much to take care of I just forgot your plans for next weekend. Anyway,enjoy the rain. God But seriously, if we can't fly, even partying in the rain isn't that much fun. I vote to postpone unless the forecast changes by Thursday. We need to ask Jane first and make sure everyone knows. Leo
Hangfly	Yea or Nay??	#8	[-]
(04/29/09 22:28:37) Club Safety Director Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Given the changability of the forecast, I think we should wait until after the 6:00 pm Thursday forecast update to say yea or nay to this weekend. It could be epic if conditions progress steadily. Charley the MeetHead This from the 9:00 pm Wednesday forecast discussion. CONSIDERING INITIAL PRECIP IS ONLY OVERRUNNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LIKE THE TIMING OF THE NAM TO UNDERSCORE ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EARLY FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SYSTEM LOW CENTER. NAM RAIN APPEARS MORE TIGHTLY CONFINED TO FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND PUSHING ON THROUGH WITH ONLY SHOWERS SATURDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE H5 LOW TO 555DM THE NAM ONLY DROPS THE CENTER TO 558DM AT PASSING AND WITH THAT PASSING SOONER THAN THE 12Z DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. CONSIDERING CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS DO PREFER THE NAM SHOWING A FASTER AND LESS INVOLVED SYSTEM THAN THAT DEPICTED BY THE TWO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. ESSENTIALLY A RAINY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE DROPS PER FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE. AGAIN...CURRENT MODELS APPEAR TO BE BACKING OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH PAST PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES AND QPF AROUND S.F. OF 0.9 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN THEREFORE REASONABLE WITH ABOUT 1.5 INCHES AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WOULD NOW EXPECT POST-SYSTEM SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ADD 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW QUICK RIDGING BY SATURDAY EVENING SHUTTING DOWN POST-FRONT SHOWERS.
John Blacet		#9	[-]
(04/30/09 05:47:54) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Sunday is looking much better?
Hangfly	morning update doesn't look good	#10	[-]
(04/30/09 06:20:38) Club Safety Director Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	well....they've upped pops for Sat to 80% and now have 30% for Sunday. It's not looking good for this weekend. I'm inclined to vote for 5-9-09 even though it's Human Race day and the 10th is Mother's Day. CW
RG		#11	[-]
(04/30/09 10:47:41) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Sorry Ryan, but I have so much to take care of I just forgot your plans for next weekend. Anyway,enjoy the rain. God You can make it up to me at Makapuu in a couple weeks, please
Ernie Camacho	Friday morning forecast	#12	[-]
(05/01/09 07:36:57) Safety Director Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	According to the forecast this morning, it looks like we did the right thing in postponing the BBQ/fly-fest. It'll be raining all through Saturday and Sunday, but it should dry out nicely for the next weekend, 5/9. .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:26 AM PDT FRIDAY...A FAST-MOVING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE WEST COAST WITH THE PARENT UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED NEAR 38N/136W. A PRE- FRONTAL WAVE MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT FROM SFO SOUTHWARD...BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS WERE RECORDED...AND THE WAVE HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE DISTRICT BY MIDMORNING WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO GET 0.5- 0.75 INCHES. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ARE PROGGED TO GET UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH OR SO CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SLUG OF MOISTURE TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. Last Edited By: Ernie Camacho 05/01/09 07:40:13. Edited 1 times.

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Rain on Saturday. What will we do? Postponed until 5/9

Rain on Saturday. What will we do? Postponed until 5/9

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